Peter du Toit

I often run across commentary in the media about what we should be doing about the climate crisis. What often strikes me is the complete lack of urgency in the conversation. The whole vibe is “we have time.” When you hear any commentary on climate change, mitigation and adaptation you must ask this fundamental question:…… Continue reading Is this consistent with consensus?

The date this was recorded was April 28th 2023 Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Why is this terrifying? Well we are able to look back and see what conditions were like when this much CO2 was in earth’s atmosphere. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis If we cannot find a way to remove this…… Continue reading We pass another terrifying milestone

We continue to spew millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. The latest trend is here: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory The consequence of this level of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is being felt everywhere. – intense heatwaves- prolonged droughts- torrential downpours- severe flooding- intense storms Take a look at what is currently…… Continue reading We did this

A new study was just released where researchers surveyed 1,000 young people (aged 16–25) across Canada. “The online survey asked respondents about: (i) climate emotions and their impacts, (ii) perspectives on the future due to climate change, (iii) perspectives and feelings about government (in)action, (iv) perspectives on supports, programs, and resources needed to cope with…… Continue reading We need the truth

In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility. The 2023 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook addresses the question: What affects the plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals? They conclude: “In light of these findings, we…… Continue reading Climate futures

Our first real climatic shock seems to be coming into view. I write this from my perspective on the southern tip of Africa. Your region of the world may be very different but it would be prudent to investigate what the impact will be where you live. In September of 2022 Dr. James Hansen and…… Continue reading Climate shock

This is why most of us struggle with understanding how very serious it is for the global mean temperature to rise by 1.5° or 2° per-industrial. We look at the forecast for say the next 14 days and see these fluctuations in min and max temperatures in a single day and between days and think…… Continue reading 1º Difference

The conversation about “we need to be optimistic” will continue to come from those who want to delay action, or those that think technology will save us from the impacts of the advancing climate crisis. The physics of what is at play here doesn’t care about any of these things. It doesn’t care if you…… Continue reading Optimisim

It is the course of wisdom to let this data really sink in: About 3.5 billion people are on the frontlines of the evolving climate crisis. That is about 44% of the global population. They are beginning to feel the effects first but the impacts will come for everyone else in due course. Which of…… Continue reading The frontlines

In a recent update from James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy they make this observation for 2023/2024 When we cross this point, which from the above seems way earlier than is traditionally thought (2034) it will serve as a massive wake-up call to the world. The reason will be that that extreme climatic events…… Continue reading Wake-up call

This morning many parts of South Africa are experiencing torrential downpours and areas near streams and rivers are already experiencing some severe flooding. The climate models have been projecting this for these parts as the planet continues to heat. This is not unique to South Africa though. In the last while the same images have…… Continue reading Torrential downpours

Let me tell you a quick story of what we have been dealing with. This year as if out of the blue the costal town we are in saw a dramatic departure in rainfall over the 10 year average. Normally the month of November has about 85mmm of rain. This November we had 2mm. Suddenly…… Continue reading Garden Route

Across the world millions of people living in cities have been able to breath easier as a result of less air pollution. We know that there is a direct link between air pollution, disease and premature death. (See: Over half a million premature deaths annually in the European Region attributable to household and ambient air pollution)…… Continue reading Pollution

They keep rising because: We keep burning coal for electricityWe keep burning petrol, diesel and aviation fuelWe keep burning gas This is having a DIRECT impact on global heating. We are currently at 1.1°C above the pre-industrial level global temperature. We are on track for a 3.2°C rise. This will be CATASTROPHIC, and will translate into: More…… Continue reading CO2

As the globe continues to heat Southern Africa has been identified as a hotspot. The predictions are for intense temperatures, drought and extreme precipitation events. (Here is a more detailed look at what to expect for Southern Africa There is a proven direct link to this happening and the rising CO2 levels brought on by the…… Continue reading Southern Africa

Today we step into the most important decade of human history. And those of us alive to see it have been chosen for this moment. What will future generations say about us I wonder? There are a few things we know for sure, as explained in this video clip for example. We also know that this decade is the…… Continue reading Happy new year

Where we are today the forecast temperatures are max. 23 and min. 16. That’s a a 7° difference. We deal with these all the time and it’s no big deal. In winter the swings can be even more extreme. So what’s the big deal with a 1° variation? Well not all temperature fluctuations are equal.…… Continue reading Temperatures

The accuracy of the predictions for Australia and what is currently playing out is an indication that what has been predicted for South Africa has a strong likelihood of materializing. Here is what the IPCC report says about Southern Africa: “The southern African region is projected to be a climate change hotspot in terms of both hot…… Continue reading Climate models

This picture was posted by the Eden Hills Country Fire Service in Adelaide south Australia on December 22nd 2019. It’s heart rending. A Koala sitting in the road next to a member of the species that caused this situation. This particular human, bless his soul, was attempting to save it’s home, but to no avail. However, to…… Continue reading What have we done

This picture represents temperature anomalies that are currently in place (December 23rd 2019) “The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference…… Continue reading Anomalies

From the Wall Street Journal: A Fine for a Flush: Drought Leaves Southern Africa High and Dry “Southern Africa is one of the hot spots world-wide that is already experiencing extreme weather events. It may be the new normal. What determines how much these events will impact communities is not only the event itself, drought in…… Continue reading South Africa

December 17, was the hottest day ever recorded in Australia: 40.9°C… that was the national average temperature. Some places were far hotter. Check out the Bureau of Meterology update here As CO2 levels continue to rise, the globe continues to get hotter. There are some places that are going to become uninhabitable leading to climate migration. In Australia it’s…… Continue reading Believe the instruments

As we step into the next decade we are going to need to make some very tough and brave choices related to how the economy works, our own consumption and how we live on our only home, earth. To make those choices we need to be informed. So I have collated the data that should…… Continue reading Brave choices

Watching the unfolding scenes in Pretoria and elsewhere (See my SA Weather Twitter List for videos and other updates) is a stark reminder of what is going to become the new normal as the planet continues to heat up. In the case of this area in South Africa, extreme temperatures (heatwaves) and extreme precipitation events like we…… Continue reading Extreme precipitation

I have been profoundly and deeply impacted by Greta Thunberg’s choice to sail from Europe to the US and back. It is a powerful message from a teenager to all of us. Nikki Henderson has eloquently articulated the impact this has had on her, co-piloting the boat on this return journey. Her thoughts are profound.…… Continue reading Greta

The latest piece in Nature entitled Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against is crystal clear: Business as usual is NOT an option. We have to stop burning fossil fuels and we have to do it now The scientist working with the data say: “If damaging tipping cascades can occur and a global tipping point cannot be ruled out,…… Continue reading Stepping up

This report America Misled — How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled Americans about climate change by researches at George Manson, Harvard and Bristol Universities made these key findings: Internal corporate documents show that the fossil fuel industry has known about the reality of human-caused climate change for decades. Its response was to actively orchestrate and fund…… Continue reading Disinformation

Early in November this short story aired on the BBC. It tells the story of an area just 200km or so from where we are. The climate crisis is unfolding in our back yard…