PETER DU TOIT

Musings From the Southern tip of Africa

La Niña cooling beginning to show

On May 16 James Hansen and his colleagues said the following: "Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina. "Present extreme planetary energy imbalance will limit La Nina-driven temperature...

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When will we cross 1.5ºC

Zeke Hausfather published this piece on Carbon Brief today entitled Analysis: What record global heat means for breaching the 1.5C warming limit Here is the analysis using the different datasets and methodologies to determine the answer to this question It would seem from the above that the...

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AMOC collapse

When one of the top global experts on the the topic shares their views on what they are seeing in the data, then pay serious attention. Case in point https://youtu.be/ZHNNW8c_FaA Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC, Keynote by Prof. Stefan Rahmstrof You can also read...

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Extreme Precipitation

As we see images of floods ravaging many parts of the globe (pictured Bavaria, Germany) it’s important to remember this observation from research published in November of 2023: “We find that the rates at which precipitation extremes are projected to scale with global temperatures underestimate...

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Collapse

In the late 1960’s a team of 17 researchers published a report entitled Limits to Growth. The model they used to simulate collapse of industrial civilisation was called World3 later updated to World3-03. Last year (2023) at team of researchers using empirical data from the last 50 years...

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El Bosque, Mexico

As you can see from the above satellite view of El Bosque in Mexico, the sea has put several blocks of the small town, population 700, permanently underwater. “According to Greenpeace, El Bosque is the first community in Mexico to be officially recognised as displaced by climate change. “In...

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South Africa Elections 2024

This election unbeknownst to most participating in it as well as to the parties and individuals who are standing for election know what severe challenges they will face in this coming 5-year term (ie 2024-2029) In a recent study the impact of climate change on South Africa is described like this:...

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India’s catch 22

India finds itself between a rock and a hard place. As we continue to heat, we know that the projections are that India will experience more intense heatwaves, especially during the warmer El Nino years. For example, right now (May 23,2024) India is under extreme heat stress. Here is the forecast...

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Hansen et al

Here are the major predictions James Hansen and colleagues made regarding 2023 and now in 2024 and the status of each of these to date. September 2022: “The 2023 temperatures should be higher than in 2022, rivalling the warmest years.”Status Confirmed: 2023 was the warmest year on record. August...

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May temperature projection

With half the month of data in, its very likely (>95% chance) that May 2024 will be the warmest May on record, extending the streak of record breaking months to 12 in a row:[image or embed]— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath.bsky.social) May 15, 2024 at 20:32 Reminder from January 12, 2024 by...

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