This all at ~1.5ºC of global heating and ~427 ppm CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

Because we refuse to hit the emergency brakes on extracting and burning fossil fuels we are now almost certain to pass 2ºC

We are on a highway to hell.

[contains quote post or other embedded content]

What happens in the oceans doesn’t stay in the oceans

Brace for impact.

[contains quote post or other embedded content]

Then prepare as best you can for these impacts.

#EarlyWarnings #ElNino #Adaptation
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-strongest-el-nino-ever

Spain on the other had a superb game – masterclass really! Well done to them.

The best team won on the night.

This tragic story highlights the need for a personal Resilience Plan.

– Understand the risks where you live.
– Have a plan to mitigate against those.

Here is something I shared for our area: https://peterdutoit.com/are-you-fire-ready/

First the El Niño update:

El Niño events, especially very strong ones do increase fire risks on the Garden Route.

The good news is that being fire ready doesn’t require expensive equipment or weeks of planning. A few practical steps taken today can make all the difference when every minute counts.

Living in a fire-prone area such as the Garden Route, preparation should begin long before smoke appears on the horizon. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfire weather in many regions, including the Western Cape, making household preparedness more important than ever. The Garden Route District Municipality has identified increasingly frequent and intense fire events as one of the district’s highest climate risks.

What can you do about this?

The first step is to:

1. Have an early warning system in place

This systems should allow you to be aware of the following on a daily basis:

• The Fire Danger Index (FDI) levels (eg see the Fire Danger Warning tab on the SAWS page)
• Are there consecutive hot days (>30 °C) forecast?
• The wind direction and strength, especially berg winds
• Official warnings either from the South African Weather Service and/or the Garden Route District Municipality (follow the social media updates from these entities and set notifications on)

2. Create an action plan

The best emergency plans are the ones that have already been discussed before an emergency happens.

Start by assigning responsibilities to each family member. Decide who will collect important documents, who will assist children or elderly relatives, and who will be responsible for pets. If someone is away from home when an emergency occurs, everyone should know exactly where to meet.

Choose an out-of-area emergency contact who can act as a central point of communication if local phone networks become overloaded. Keep digital copies of important documents, including identification, insurance information and medical records, stored securely in the cloud so they remain accessible even if your home is damaged.

3. Know your way out

Never rely on a single escape route.

Before fire season begins, drive several different routes out of your neighbourhood. During fast-moving wildfires, roads can become blocked by smoke, fallen trees, emergency vehicles or the fire itself.

Look for routes that lead towards safer, open areas rather than dead-end roads surrounded by vegetation. Identify potential temporary refuge areas such as large parking lots, sports fields or other wide-open spaces if conditions change while you are evacuating.

During an active fire, always monitor official emergency updates for road closures and changing conditions.

4. Decide when you will leave

One of the biggest mistakes people make is waiting until a Mandatory Evacuation Order is issued.

By then, roads may already be congested and emergency services may be overwhelmed.

Instead, establish your evacuation trigger before the season begins. If authorities issue a Voluntary Evacuation Warning, treat it as your signal to leave. Leaving early is often the safest decision because it gives you more route options and greatly reduces the chance of becoming trapped.

Remember that homes can often be rebuilt. Lives cannot.

5. Prepare a Go-Bag before you need it

A well-prepared Go-Bag allows you to leave within minutes.

Every family member should have access to:

• Enough non-perishable food and drinking water for at least three days.
• Prescription medications and basic first aid supplies.
• Copies of important documents.
• Mobile phone chargers and power banks.
• Flashlights with spare batteries.
• N95 masks to reduce smoke exposure.
• Protective goggles to shield your eyes from ash and smoke.
• A change of clothing and sturdy shoes.

If you have small children, older family members or pets, make sure their specific needs are packed well in advance.

6. Prepare your home before you leave

Reducing the amount of fuel around your home can significantly improve its chances of surviving a wildfire.

Regularly clear dead vegetation, dry grass and fallen branches around your property. Remove leaves and pine needles from gutters and roofs, where wind-blown embers often ignite fires.

When fire danger is high, move outdoor furniture cushions and other combustible items indoors. Before evacuating, close all windows, doors and vents where possible to reduce the chance of embers entering the home.

Fire agencies recommend maintaining a defensible space around buildings by reducing flammable vegetation. The exact distance depends on local vegetation, terrain and building standards, so always follow guidance from your local fire authority.

The best time to prepare is now

Wildfires often develop much faster than people expect. Once smoke is visible or evacuation orders are issued, there may be very little time to think through important decisions.

Preparation removes uncertainty. It helps families act quickly, reduces panic and gives emergency services the space they need to do their work.

Ask yourself one simple question:

If you had to leave your home within the next 15 minutes, would you be ready?

If the answer is no, today is the perfect day to start!

We can be extremely thankful for this data we as it helps us with risk mitigation.

Have you heard of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship? This is one of the most robust findings in atmospheric physics (you can read more about it here) basically the finding is this:

the atmosphere’s water-holding capacity increases by roughly 7% per °C of warming.

The graphic shows the latest Global Total Column Precipitable Water 36-Month Running Average

Here is a way to understand total column precipitable water:

Think of the atmosphere as a giant sponge. Total column precipitable water measures how much water that sponge is holding from the ground right up to the edge of space. The wetter the sponge, the more water is available to produce heavy rain if the right weather conditions develop.

What does the current 36-month running mean?

The graph shows that Earth’s atmosphere is holding more moisture than at any point in the observational record. A warmer atmosphere can store more water vapour, providing more fuel for heavy rainfall when storms develop, while also increasing evaporation that can intensify drought where rain fails to occur.

In other words, the atmosphere is becoming more energetic, increasing the potential for more intense hydrological extremes.

When weather systems now produce conditions which make rainfall possible, we have to understand that risk for extreme precipitation has now increased dramatically and we have to plan accordingly.

This is why you in the latest IPCC assessment they make this observation as we continue to heat:

risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers (high confidence).

I’m n recent times we have seen how seasonal rivers can become ragging torrents because more water falls during rainfall events. Here are some examples of this from last year:

We are certain, given our current non-emergency approach to curbing fossil fuel burning, that 2ºC will be passed. What happens then?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2026/jul/11/uk-pupils-struggle-extreme-heat-schools-classrooms

George Herald
Published: 8 July 2026

The George Herald covered the 2026 Garden Route Environmental Forum (GREF) Climate Change and Environmental Management Summit, an event that brought together scientists, government officials, environmental practitioners and community leaders to discuss the latest climate science and its implications for the Garden Route and Western Cape.

During du Toit's presentation, he examined the current state of the global climate using the latest observations and international scientific assessments. The discussion explored how continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are driving Earth’s energy imbalance, leading to record ocean heat, rising global temperatures, accelerating sea-level rise and increasing risks to natural and human systems. Particular attention was given to how these global changes influence regional weather patterns and contribute to the growing likelihood of extreme weather events affecting Southern Africa.

The presentation also explored the latest understanding of climate indicators, including greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature trends, and ocean heat content. These indicators provide an integrated picture of a rapidly changing climate and help explain why communities are experiencing more frequent and more damaging climate-related hazards.

A key theme was the importance of understanding climate risk within a local context. The Garden Route is particularly vulnerable to drought, flooding, wildfires, coastal hazards and pressures on water resources. Strengthening resilience requires combining the best available climate science with effective disaster risk reduction, long-term planning and practical adaptation measures that help communities prepare for future conditions rather than simply respond to disasters after they occur.

The summit also highlighted the value of collaboration between scientists, municipalities, disaster management agencies and environmental organisations. By improving access to reliable scientific information and supporting evidence-based decision-making, these partnerships can help build more resilient communities and reduce the impacts of future climate-related disasters.

The event reinforced an important message: while climate risks continue to grow, informed planning, early warning systems, resilient infrastructure and science-based adaptation provide practical pathways for reducing vulnerability and protecting communities across the Garden Route and the Western Cape.

This summary is provided for informational purposes. Copyright remains with the original publisher.

Read the original article on the George Herald website