Here are some of the documented observations across the system:

What we are observing here is the simultaneous deterioration of several systems that depend on one another.

• Water infrastructure depends on sound financial management
• Finacial management depends on effective governance
• Public health depends on functioning sanitation
• Economic activity depends on reliable services and a safe attractive town

When several systems weaken together, the consequences begin to reinforce one another. It becomes a negative feedback loop.

The critical issue is the loss of resilience

In systems thinking there is a concept known as critical slowing down. As a system approaches a critical tipping point it progressively takes longer to recover from disruptions. Applied to Knysna the questions become:

1. Are pipe failures being repaired, only for more failures to emerge?
2. Are sewage problems recurring despite repeated interventions?
3. Is the municipality increasingly dependent on external assistance or private initiatives?
4. Are recovery times lengthening?
5. Is the system losing its ability to absorb additional disruption?

We already have the answers to most of these.

Why I am concerned about the next major shock

Image now, if you will, that a major drought arrives that coincides with 50 pipe breaks. Or an extreme rainfall event that overwhelms already compromised stormwater and sewerage systems, Or a prolonged electricity interruption that disrupts pumping and water treatment infrastructure.

Each of these events may be manageable on their own in a well-functioning municipality, but in Knysna's case, there is currently less remaining capacity to manage shocks like these because so much of its capacity is already taken up with existing problems, which it is struggling to keep ahead of.

There is a big difference between an extreme event becoming a temporary emergency and it triggering a prolonged system-wide crisis because it arrives at a time when systems are already severely compromised. It is worth remembering that the severity of a disaster is not just determined by the actual event itself but by the vulnerability and capacity the community experiencing it has.

Normalisation is a big red flag

This to me, is the most troubling of all about the situation in Knysna. By and large residents in the town are beginning to accept the dysfunction as an ordinary feature of life in the town.

Burst pipes have become routine. Sewage spills have become routine. Streetlights remain broken. Residents are arranging their own repairs. Community organisations are taking on responsibilities that properly belong to the municipality.

Life is continuing and is creating the impression that everything is still sort of functioning. But what is actually happening, is that the community is compensating for the declining performance of the town’s institutions. It is this compensation that is concealing the seriousness of the deterioration.

Know this for sure - there are limits to how much households, businesses and volunteers can absorb. There is a breaking point.

As things stand now

Here is the thing that most people do not understand about collapse, it does not necessarily arrive as a single catastrophic event. It develops incrementally, through the combined deterioration of governance, infrastructure, public services, environmental quality and social conditions.

Each failure may seem manageable in isolation, but together they progressively erode the municipality's ability to function and recover.

The greatest danger is not necessarily the deterioration that is already clearly visible. It is that a major external shock would very likely overwhelm Knysna's capacity to absorb further disruption because its systems are already considerably weakened.

The writing is on the wall, so to speak, the alarm bells are ringing loud and clear. Yet it is worth mentioning that the outcome is not predetermined

The decisive question is going to be whether the town can reverse its deterioration faster than its vulnerabilities continue to grow.

Time will tell.

So what can you do about all this?

My single most important piece of advice to people living in the town would be this:

Stop assuming that the systems you depend on today will necessarily be available when you need them tomorrow. Start building your own resilience now, while you still have the opportunity to do so.

There are 6 things I would consider priority:

1. Build household resilience before an emergency.
   Every household should have a practical contingency plan for interruptions to water, electricity, sanitation and communications. For water, that means maintaining an appropriate emergency supply of safe drinking water, understanding how to protect stored water from contamination and considering additional storage where affordable and practical. The objective is not necessarily complete off the grid self-sufficiency. It is to avoid becoming immediately vulnerable when a municipal service fails.
   
   
2. Take water quality and public health seriously.
   The September estuary testing showed E. coli readings exceeding the report's recreational threshold at nine of fourteen sampling locations, including all six culverts. People should avoid assuming that water is safe for recreational use simply because it looks clean! Importantly, estuary contamination does not automatically mean municipal tap water is unsafe of course. Drinking-water safety must be determined using the appropriate drinking-water test results and official advisories.
   
   
3. Prepare for compound emergencies, not just individual disruptions.
   A burst pipe is inconvenient. A burst pipe during a drought can become a serious problem. A sewage spill is hazardous. A sewage spill during flooding can create much wider exposure risks. Residents should consider what happens when two or three essential services fail simultaneously. This is especially important for elderly residents, people with disabilities, families with young children and those who depend on electricity or water for their medical needs.
   
   
4. Build neighbourhood resilience.
   Individual preparedness has limits. Communities should establish reliable communication networks, identify vulnerable neighbours and develop arrangements for sharing information and assistance during emergencies. There is considerable value in knowing who can help, what resources are available locally and how to coordinate a response before a crisis develops.
   
   
5. Protect your financial resilience.
   Municipal deterioration can impose substantial indirect costs on households. Water storage, backup power, property maintenance, transport disruptions and private repairs all compete for household income. Residents should assess their exposure, prioritise affordable protective measures and avoid taking on unsustainable debt in pursuit of complete independence from municipal services.
   
   
6. Demand measurable improvement, not simply evidence of activity.
   The municipality reported 50 burst pipe repairs during September. That demonstrates repair activity, but it does not tell residents whether the water network is becoming more reliable. Residents have very good reason to ask for transparent reporting on infrastructure failures, water losses, service interruptions, repair times, preventative maintenance and infrastructure replacement. Demand that the Vodacom Digital Water Tower is kept up-to-date. (Latest data is July 2026). The same principle applies to sewage management and environmental monitoring.

The most important consideration is the next major shock

What concerns me about Knysna is not simply the number of things going wrong. It is the possibility that several essential systems are already operating with reduced capacity to absorb additional disruption. A severe drought, major flood, prolonged electricity failure or another significant event could expose weaknesses that are currently being managed through emergency repairs and community intervention.

That is a credible risk scenario.

I think it is also important to highlight the difference between preparedness and pessimism. Preparedness recognises that conditions can/are deteriorating further and takes practical steps to reduce the consequences. Pessimism assumes deterioration is unavoidable. The first is constructive obviously, the second can become self-defeating and paralyse you.

One final piece of advice

I would encourage you to establish personal thresholds for when your circumstances become unacceptable.

For example, how many days without reliable water could your household manage? What would you do if repeated sewage contamination affected your immediate neighbourhood? How would you respond if an extreme weather event disrupted several essential services simultaneously?

These are not questions you should be answering for the first time during an emergency.

And for those who have the means, it is entirely reasonable to consider longer-term decisions about property, business continuity and even relocation. But those decisions should be based on your personal circumstances, verified risks and realistic alternatives open to you, rather than fear of pending collapse alone.

Good luck Knysna!

Although there is nothing inherently wrong with humour in weather communication, given the magnitude of risk that is associated with this event, the use of laugh emojis is particularly jarring.

In the EU so far this summer approximately 20,000 people have died from heat stress. Globally the figure is now estimated to be about 546,000 annually.

Is extreme heat a laughing matter?

Earlier this month the World Food Program estimated that the climate related shocks from this El Niño event could significantly worsen food insecurity in 45 countries!

They are estimating:

• 49 million additional people globally could be pushed into acute food insecurity.
• 18+ million in East and Southern Africa could experience deteriorating food security. The regional increase could be 26%.
• Southern Africa is particularly exposed because of dependence on rain-fed agriculture.

As a result the WFP has already activated anticipatory-action programmes because the impacts are beginning and preparation needs to happen before the worst impacts arrive.

Clearly this is not simply a weather event. If these forecasts materialise, extreme heat, drought, wildfire and associated impacts on water, food and health could cause serious harm and potentially loss of life.

There is a difference between making people aware of the risks and making light of them.

They seriously need to reconsider their communication choice here.

While we are on this, there are comments on this update that are downright misinformation. By not moderating comments, they become complicit in the spread thereof. They need to seriously up their game here too.

The latest ECMWF soil-moisture forecast, valid up to 31 August, suggests that parts of the Western Cape are moving toward less favourable soil-moisture conditions after the below-normal rainfall experienced in July and, so far in August.

The area highlighted above in red is in the green portion of the ECMWF soil-moisture scale, which represents soil moisture between the permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (CAP). Within this range, the model estimates that evapotranspiration efficiency increases with increasing soil moisture, reaching 100% at field capacity.

This means the soil still contains water, but continued rainfall declines, particularly as it gets warmer, would progressively reduce soil moisture.

This does not mean that the Western Cape is already experiencing soil-moisture stress but it is an early signal that the reduced rainfall is beginning to have an impact on soil moisture levels.

For the Garden Route, this is something we will be watching closely. Rainfall for August is currently running at approximately 14% below average, following below-normal rainfall that was recorded in July. The key question now is whether rainfall during September and October will be enough to keep soil moisture in the above ranges before the warmer and therefore greater evaporation conditions set in.

To sum up, while the rainfall numbers are important soil moisture levels will tell us when the decrease in rainfall begins to have an impact on the 1 m soil moisture levels.

A discussion on why climate preparedness matters even when dams are full. We examine the emerging El Niño, the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and why understanding climate risk is essential for making informed decisions about water security, wildfire preparedness, and resilience in a changing climate.

The period between March and May carries considerable uncertainty but as we pass this period models become more reliable in their forecasts. This is why the latest update (issued July 9) from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center had this to say about where we are:

There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes

Zeke Hausfather has done some really great work in taking 14 models, including NOAA's and creating a synthesis which puts everything together from the major climate monitoring services. Here is the latest graphic from that work:

Based on all the models, we now know with considerable certainty that the El Niño is underway and there is a very high probability of it being a record breaking event.

What should we in South Africa and the Garden Route look out for?

The El Niño on its own does not determine what impacts will be felt in Southern Africa, the Western Cape and Garden Route. Impacts are determined by how the other systems that affect our climate and weather patterns interact with the El Niño event.

The two major systems that we have to pay attention to are what is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode. These two systems could either reinforce the El Niño event or help temper its impacts in this region.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The IOD is a climate pattern involving an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean. It is often referred to as El Niño's "cousin" because it operates on a similar ocean-atmosphere feedback loop, just over a smaller body of water.

When water temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean (near Africa) and cooler in the east (near Indonesia) this is described as a Positive IOD. This brings heavy rainfall and flooding to East Africa and much drier conditions to Southern Africa. When this system is positive it tends to reinforce the El Niño over Southern Africa.

Currently the latest forecast has the IOD as positive until at least December 2026

So we now have a forecast for a very strong El Niño and a positive IOD. What about the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)?

The Souther Annular Mode (SAM)

Here is a great explanation of what the SAM is from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

So to sum up, in the southern hemisphere, a positive SAM shifts cold fronts, and thus rainfall further south. A negative SAM shifts cold fronts further north, bringing a greater chance of rainfall.

Did you notice the explanation of what the impact of an El Niño is on the SAM? During an El Niño event the SAM tends negative, which in theory results in a greater chance of rainfall for the Western Cape. However, in recent years research has shown that, due to the heating planet, the SAM has trended positive. This means that an El Niño event could simply move the SAM to a neutral state instead of forcing it negative.

Here is the current SAM forecast taking us out to August 25th.

As can be seen from the above, the SAM is currently negative which should make it easier for cold fronts to reach the Western Cape resulting in dam and river recharge opportunities. Rainfall events can also occur in the neutral state.

In its current negative and then neutral state there is little reinforcement of the strengthening El Niño at present.

Summing it all up

Compared with where we were a month ago, the positive IOD forecast has become a more significant piece of evidence that the tropical climate system is beginning to align in a way that can reinforce the exceptionally strong El Niño. At the same time, the SAM forecast is not currently adding to that risk, and in the short term may even allow more typical frontal activity than would occur under a persistently positive SAM.

For Southern Africa, that means the risk outlook is elevated but not locked in. If, over the next 6–10 weeks, the SAM were to trend and remain predominantly positive while the IOD verifies as positive and El Niño continues on its projected trajectory, then the large-scale circulation would be much closer to the classic setup associated with severe regional drought. That is why, after monitoring the evolution of El Niño itself, the SAM becomes the single most important indicator to watch from August into October, while the IOD provides the broader seasonal background.

First the El Niño update:

El Niño events, especially very strong ones do increase fire risks on the Garden Route.

The good news is that being fire ready doesn’t require expensive equipment or weeks of planning. A few practical steps taken today can make all the difference when every minute counts.

Living in a fire-prone area such as the Garden Route, preparation should begin long before smoke appears on the horizon. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfire weather in many regions, including the Western Cape, making household preparedness more important than ever. The Garden Route District Municipality has identified increasingly frequent and intense fire events as one of the district’s highest climate risks.

What can you do about this?

The first step is to:

1. Have an early warning system in place

This systems should allow you to be aware of the following on a daily basis:

• The Fire Danger Index (FDI) levels (eg see the Fire Danger Warning tab on the SAWS page)
• Are there consecutive hot days (>30 °C) forecast?
• The wind direction and strength, especially berg winds
• Official warnings either from the South African Weather Service and/or the Garden Route District Municipality (follow the social media updates from these entities and set notifications on)

2. Create an action plan

The best emergency plans are the ones that have already been discussed before an emergency happens.

Start by assigning responsibilities to each family member. Decide who will collect important documents, who will assist children or elderly relatives, and who will be responsible for pets. If someone is away from home when an emergency occurs, everyone should know exactly where to meet.

Choose an out-of-area emergency contact who can act as a central point of communication if local phone networks become overloaded. Keep digital copies of important documents, including identification, insurance information and medical records, stored securely in the cloud so they remain accessible even if your home is damaged.

3. Know your way out

Never rely on a single escape route.

Before fire season begins, drive several different routes out of your neighbourhood. During fast-moving wildfires, roads can become blocked by smoke, fallen trees, emergency vehicles or the fire itself.

Look for routes that lead towards safer, open areas rather than dead-end roads surrounded by vegetation. Identify potential temporary refuge areas such as large parking lots, sports fields or other wide-open spaces if conditions change while you are evacuating.

During an active fire, always monitor official emergency updates for road closures and changing conditions.

4. Decide when you will leave

One of the biggest mistakes people make is waiting until a Mandatory Evacuation Order is issued.

By then, roads may already be congested and emergency services may be overwhelmed.

Instead, establish your evacuation trigger before the season begins. If authorities issue a Voluntary Evacuation Warning, treat it as your signal to leave. Leaving early is often the safest decision because it gives you more route options and greatly reduces the chance of becoming trapped.

Remember that homes can often be rebuilt. Lives cannot.

5. Prepare a Go-Bag before you need it

A well-prepared Go-Bag allows you to leave within minutes.

Every family member should have access to:

• Enough non-perishable food and drinking water for at least three days.
• Prescription medications and basic first aid supplies.
• Copies of important documents.
• Mobile phone chargers and power banks.
• Flashlights with spare batteries.
• N95 masks to reduce smoke exposure.
• Protective goggles to shield your eyes from ash and smoke.
• A change of clothing and sturdy shoes.

If you have small children, older family members or pets, make sure their specific needs are packed well in advance.

6. Prepare your home before you leave

Reducing the amount of fuel around your home can significantly improve its chances of surviving a wildfire.

Regularly clear dead vegetation, dry grass and fallen branches around your property. Remove leaves and pine needles from gutters and roofs, where wind-blown embers often ignite fires.

When fire danger is high, move outdoor furniture cushions and other combustible items indoors. Before evacuating, close all windows, doors and vents where possible to reduce the chance of embers entering the home.

Fire agencies recommend maintaining a defensible space around buildings by reducing flammable vegetation. The exact distance depends on local vegetation, terrain and building standards, so always follow guidance from your local fire authority.

The best time to prepare is now

Wildfires often develop much faster than people expect. Once smoke is visible or evacuation orders are issued, there may be very little time to think through important decisions.

Preparation removes uncertainty. It helps families act quickly, reduces panic and gives emergency services the space they need to do their work.

Ask yourself one simple question:

If you had to leave your home within the next 15 minutes, would you be ready?

If the answer is no, today is the perfect day to start!

We can be extremely thankful for this data we as it helps us with risk mitigation.

Have you heard of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship? This is one of the most robust findings in atmospheric physics (you can read more about it here) basically the finding is this:

the atmosphere’s water-holding capacity increases by roughly 7% per °C of warming.

The graphic shows the latest Global Total Column Precipitable Water 36-Month Running Average

Here is a way to understand total column precipitable water:

Think of the atmosphere as a giant sponge. Total column precipitable water measures how much water that sponge is holding from the ground right up to the edge of space. The wetter the sponge, the more water is available to produce heavy rain if the right weather conditions develop.

What does the current 36-month running mean?

The graph shows that Earth’s atmosphere is holding more moisture than at any point in the observational record. A warmer atmosphere can store more water vapour, providing more fuel for heavy rainfall when storms develop, while also increasing evaporation that can intensify drought where rain fails to occur.

In other words, the atmosphere is becoming more energetic, increasing the potential for more intense hydrological extremes.

When weather systems now produce conditions which make rainfall possible, we have to understand that risk for extreme precipitation has now increased dramatically and we have to plan accordingly.

This is why you in the latest IPCC assessment they make this observation as we continue to heat:

risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers (high confidence).

I’m n recent times we have seen how seasonal rivers can become ragging torrents because more water falls during rainfall events. Here are some examples of this from last year:

George Herald
Published: 8 July 2026

The George Herald covered the 2026 Garden Route Environmental Forum (GREF) Climate Change and Environmental Management Summit, an event that brought together scientists, government officials, environmental practitioners and community leaders to discuss the latest climate science and its implications for the Garden Route and Western Cape.

During du Toit's presentation, he examined the current state of the global climate using the latest observations and international scientific assessments. The discussion explored how continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are driving Earth’s energy imbalance, leading to record ocean heat, rising global temperatures, accelerating sea-level rise and increasing risks to natural and human systems. Particular attention was given to how these global changes influence regional weather patterns and contribute to the growing likelihood of extreme weather events affecting Southern Africa.

The presentation also explored the latest understanding of climate indicators, including greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature trends, and ocean heat content. These indicators provide an integrated picture of a rapidly changing climate and help explain why communities are experiencing more frequent and more damaging climate-related hazards.

A key theme was the importance of understanding climate risk within a local context. The Garden Route is particularly vulnerable to drought, flooding, wildfires, coastal hazards and pressures on water resources. Strengthening resilience requires combining the best available climate science with effective disaster risk reduction, long-term planning and practical adaptation measures that help communities prepare for future conditions rather than simply respond to disasters after they occur.

The summit also highlighted the value of collaboration between scientists, municipalities, disaster management agencies and environmental organisations. By improving access to reliable scientific information and supporting evidence-based decision-making, these partnerships can help build more resilient communities and reduce the impacts of future climate-related disasters.

The event reinforced an important message: while climate risks continue to grow, informed planning, early warning systems, resilient infrastructure and science-based adaptation provide practical pathways for reducing vulnerability and protecting communities across the Garden Route and the Western Cape.

This summary is provided for informational purposes. Copyright remains with the original publisher.

Read the original article on the George Herald website

The Garden Route is being assessed as a high-loss region

The presentation placed the recent events in a wider sequence: the 2017 Knysna fires, floods and storm surge in 2022–23, the July 2024 cut-off low, and the May 2026 extreme rainfall event. The presentation cited a Garden Route District Municipality assessment of more than R500 million in municipal infrastructure and facility damage from the May event alone, excluding the wider losses borne by households, businesses and farms.

The key concern is recurrence. Fire, flood and storm-surge losses are no longer treated as once-in-a-generation shocks. When damaging events arrive repeatedly, insurers do not assess each one in isolation. They reassess the expected cost of future claims across the whole area.

That can mean higher premiums, higher excesses, narrower terms, stricter underwriting and, in the most exposed locations, reduced willingness to offer cover at all.

The real cost of a disaster extends far beyond physical damage

The presentation described three waves of loss. The first is the immediate shock: damaged buildings and stock, closed roads, power and water outages, evacuations and lost trading days.

The second arrives over weeks and months. Businesses can face disrupted supply chains, reduced visitor numbers, inability to access premises, cash-flow pressure, layoffs and delayed rebuilding. For a tourism-dependent region, this matters deeply. A business that misses a peak trading period may not recover that lost income later in the year.

The third wave can last for years. Premiums rise, exclusions expand, investment is deferred, property values come under pressure and municipal budgets are stretched by repeated repair costs. This is where climate risk begins to affect the local economy’s capacity to recover between events.

Business interruption is often the hidden vulnerability

One of the most useful points in the presentation was its focus on business-interruption insurance. Property insurance may rebuild a damaged wall or replace equipment, but it does not automatically keep a business alive while roads are closed, utilities are unreliable, contractors are scarce or customers cannot reach the area.

The presentation warned that many businesses may have indemnity periods that are too short for a regional disaster. A six-month period may be insufficient where rebuilding capacity is constrained across multiple towns and supply chains remain disrupted. It also highlighted under-declared gross profit, missing cover for supplier failure or denial of access, and the absence of a tested continuity plan.

For businesses in Knysna, George, Plettenberg Bay, and the wider Garden Route, reviewing these details is increasingly as important as reviewing the building sum insured.

Insurers are moving to more granular risk assessment

The presentation described a shift towards location-specific pricing and geospatial underwriting. Insurers increasingly combine property-level information with flood, fire, coastal and weather-hazard data. This means that two properties in the same town can receive very different terms depending on their exposure to floodplains, wildfire interfaces, unstable slopes, coastal erosion, drainage constraints or limited road access.

It also means municipal infrastructure matters to private insurance outcomes. Drainage, culverts, bridges, roads, power resilience, catchment management, firebreaks and emergency response capacity all influence the expected severity of future losses.

The Garden Route District’s climate adaptation plan already identifies floods, droughts, fires, coastal hazards, water security and infrastructure vulnerability as high-priority risks. It also notes that climate-related losses are expected to increase and that adaptation must be incorporated into planning and development decisions.

The protection gap leaves households, businesses and government exposed

Rabie’s presentation described a large protection gap: the share of economic loss not covered by insurance. This is especially consequential in South Africa, where many households and small businesses have little or no short-term insurance and may also be underinsured.

When a loss is uninsured, it does not disappear. It shifts to households, businesses, charitable networks, municipal disaster funds and provincial or national government. Recovery becomes slower and more uneven, particularly for small enterprises that cannot absorb prolonged disruption or finance rebuilding from reserves.

This is why insurance availability should be understood as a public-interest issue. It is connected to employment, property values, municipal finances, tourism, food production and the ability of communities to remain in place after repeated shocks.

Coastal risk is becoming an economic-planning issue

The presentation also highlighted sea-level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion. These are slower-moving than a wildfire or flash flood, but their effects accumulate. A higher sea level raises the baseline for storm surge and high-tide flooding, increasing repeated damage to coastal assets, estuaries, roads, bridges and tourism infrastructure.

The practical implication is that coastal planning cannot be treated only as an environmental matter. Setbacks, land-use decisions, estuary management, infrastructure design and, where necessary, relocation are increasingly decisions about long-term economic risk and insurability.

The above is of course of particular interest to Knysna as the town is already experiencing sunny day flooding.

Resilience and insurability are part of the same system

The presentation’s most important conclusion was that resilience and insurability reinforce each other. Investment in risk reduction can lower losses when an event occurs and help maintain access to insurance afterwards.

For businesses, this includes maintaining drainage and roofs, protecting stock and equipment, preparing for utility failures, keeping documentation current, reviewing sums insured and business-interruption cover, and testing continuity plans. For municipalities and the region, it includes maintaining critical infrastructure, reducing flood and fire exposure, protecting catchments and wetlands, improving early warning and emergency response, and ensuring future development does not deepen existing risk.

Insurance remains a vital safety net. But it works best when the underlying risk is being actively reduced. The Garden Route’s challenge is not only to recover from the latest event. It is to reduce the losses from the next one before they occur.

In our resilience workshops we often use this graphic to illustrate the point:

When resilience plans are in place and executed on, it results in what we call "built resilience" which when an extreme event strikes ensures that a community, business, family etc. is not taken below a tipping point from which full recovery is not possible and permanent loss is experienced.

Building resilience is now an immediate priority.

a new city-level climate intelligence platform combining our high-resolution observational record with forward-looking warming projections for more than 8,000 locations worldwide

Fortunately for us on the Garden Route they cover Knysna, Oudtshoorn, Mossel Bay and Plettenberg Bay (but no George, which is interesting.)

Let's take a look at Knysna's data because it tells a rather alarming story:

The data demands attention

In 2025, Knysna’s climate story is one of rapid change and some unsettling surprises. According to Berkeley Earth’s data, the town’s 20-year average temperature already reached 17.79°C in 2025, a temperature that was not expected until 2030. Just a few years ago, projections suggested that Knysna’s 20-year average would rise from 16.16°C to 17.75°C by the end of the decade. Yet, in 2025, with the 20-year average already at 17.79°C, the annual temperature for the year hit 18.04°C.

This means Knysna has not only met but exceeded its 2030 temperature projection five years ahead of schedule.

The SSP3-7.0 scenario, a high-emissions pathway used by climate scientists, projected Knysna’s temperature to be 17.62°C in 2025 (observed 20-year average 17.92ºC). The reality is stark: actual temperatures are already higher than this high-emission scenario estimate.

This is a wake-up call, signaling that local warming is accelerating faster than even the most pessimistic models anticipated.

What does a warmer Knysna actually mean

An increase of 1.6°C in the long-term average may not sound particularly dramatic. After all, temperatures often change by more than that between sunrise and lunchtime, for example today July 1, 2026 the temperatures ranges between 9ºC (min) and 15ºC (max) a 6ºC difference. Climate change, however, is not about the weather on any particular day. It is about shifting the baseline from which all weather occurs.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing the potential for intense rainfall when storms develop. Higher temperatures also increase evaporation from soils, rivers and dams, making dry periods more severe. During hot, dry and windy conditions, vegetation dries out more quickly, increasing the likelihood that wildfires become more intense and spread more rapidly.

A temperature rise of this magnitude is not just a statistical anomaly, it has real, tangible consequences for the environment.

Ecosystems that have evolved over millennia to thrive in Knysna’s mild climate are now facing unprecedented stress. Species that cannot adapt or migrate quickly enough will likely decline or disappear, disrupting food chains and reducing biodiversity. For a region known for its rich natural heritage, including the Knysna estuary and its unique surrounding coastal forests, this is a direct threat to ecological stability.

Human health is another critical area of concern. These rising temperatures increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and outdoor workers. Additionally we know, as is being witnessed elsewhere, that warmer conditions can expand the range of disease-carrying insects, (eg. mosquitoes) potentially introducing new health risks to the region.

The broader implications

Knysna’s situation is a microcosm of a global trend: climate change is happening faster than predicted. While the global average temperature (land & ocean) is now at about 1.5ºC above the preindustrial average, local realities, like the one in Knysna, often outpace the global temperature averages.

The fact that Knysna’s temperatures are already surpassing projections underscores the urgency of both mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions wherever possible) and adaptation (preparing for the inevitable changes). The data is a clear signal that "business as usual" is no longer an option. Local governments, businesses, and communities must come together to address this challenge head-on. This means investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting sustainable land use practices, and supporting research and monitoring to better understand and respond to local climate trends.

For individuals, the message is equally urgent. Reducing personal carbon footprints, supporting local sustainability initiatives, and advocating for stronger climate policies can all contribute to a collective effort to slow the rate of change. The time to act is now before the gap between projections and reality widens even further.

We have the solutions we just need to implement them and if we don't well then the results of not doing so are on us.

The Berkeley Earth projection graph above is based on one possible emissions scenario known as SSP3-7.0. This projection should not be interpreted as a prediction of exactly what will happen. Instead, it illustrates how temperatures could evolve if greenhouse gas emissions remain relatively high throughout this century. We have lower emissions pathways available to us, but we must actively choose them!

As a result of all the above, it is clear that we are committed to a certain level of heating, to which we need to adapt. What do we need to do? My suggestion is everyone should read and take this document seriously. The adaptation research has been done. We now urgently need to implement the suggestions.