PETER DU TOIT

Musings from the Southern Tip of Africa

Science Insights

Reality check

We have lost the ability to keep warming below 1.5°C and have very likely lost keeping below 2°C too. Since our societies and systems are not built for physical environments at these thresholds, we urgently need to begin to prepare for this new world. We have no time to lose! Technical dialogue of...

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Heat risks

As we race towards a 1.5° world and then 2° understanding who is most at risk near-term (2023-2040) is critical. One such group are those who live near thermal limits. What exactly are those limits? This research goes a long way in helping us understand that the thresholds are lower than initially...

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It’s not complicated

The Earth's Energy Imbalance is "one of the key critical global climate change indicators defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change." High level it is not really that complicated to understand: Earth absorbs more heat from the sun than it radiates to space due to the...

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We are on a highway to hell

Let’s not kid ourselves. We ARE on a highway to hell with our foot firmly on the gas. The science: “Limiting warming to 2°C [we missed the 1.5° opportunity window] involves RAPID, DEEP and in most cases IMMEDIATE greenhouse gas emission reductions” IPCC SYR, Page 22 Our response: “We believe that...

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Understanding our predicament

This is probably the most important graphic to help us understand our predicament. Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? Right at the top you see this: This indicates a positive Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) A positive EEI means that the Earth system is gaining...

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Early warnings

In this peer-reviewed paper scientists looked at 12 locations around the Mediterranean and Middle East to determine when these locations would cross the regular occurrences of 45° and then 50°C days given our current trajectory. They look at the situation at present, mid century (27 years away)...

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Confusion

Raise your hand if you have been feeling this way of late! Any person that has a smartphone with a messaging app on it (eg. WhatsApp Telegram, iMessage etc.) or has a social media account is flooded with information for all sides! It can be truly overwhelming! This often leads to exasperation and...

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