PETER DU TOIT

Musings from the Southern Tip of Africa

Heatwaves Insights

India’s catch 22

India finds itself between a rock and a hard place. As we continue to heat, we know that the projections are that India will experience more intense heatwaves, especially during the warmer El Nino years. For example, right now (May 23,2024) India is under extreme heat stress. Here is the forecast...

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Mali April 2024

On the 4th of April an intense heatwave hit parts of Mail with Kayes reaching a maximum temperature of 48.5°C forcing the government to close schools as a result of safety concerns. In the recent IPCC reporting this region is one of the areas where heat-humidity stress is projected to increase as...

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South Africa summer 23/24

For the first time in recorded history, global temperature anomalies were above 2°C for four consecutive days, February 8-11 The impact of this was felt a few days later in South Africa with heatwave conditions experienced in parts of the country from Feb 17-25 - the longest stretch of heat days...

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Heating impact on South Africa

We know that we will cross +1.5°C of heating permanently in the next 6-9 years (In December of 2023 using the long-term average we had already warmed by +1.26°C) How close are we to 1.5°C Using the available climate models we can project what we can expect when we reach this threshold in South...

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Heat risks

As we race towards a 1.5° world and then 2° understanding who is most at risk near-term (2023-2040) is critical. One such group are those who live near thermal limits. What exactly are those limits? This research goes a long way in helping us understand that the thresholds are lower than initially...

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Early warnings

In this peer-reviewed paper scientists looked at 12 locations around the Mediterranean and Middle East to determine when these locations would cross the regular occurrences of 45° and then 50°C days given our current trajectory. They look at the situation at present, mid century (27 years away)...

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