The South African Weather Service posted this update on their Facebook page: Although there is nothing inherently wrong with humour in weather communication, given the magnitude of risk that is associated with this event, the use of laugh emojis is particularly jarring. In the EU so far this...
As the very powerful El Niño continues to develop we need to pay attention to as many signals as possible to enable us to determine early what impacts could be experienced in the Garden Route. The latest ECMWF soil-moisture forecast, valid up to 31 August, suggests that parts of the Western Cape...
We have now passed what is traditionally known as the "spring (northern hemisphere) predictability barrier" when it comes to ENSO predictions. The period between March and May carries considerable uncertainty but as we pass this period models become more reliable in their forecasts. This is why...
With latest news landing that the current developing El Niño could be the most extreme on record, it is important to revisit fire safety plans. First the El Niño update: https://bsky.app/profile/zekehausfather.com/post/3mqjykq6sqe2m El Niño events, especially very strong ones do increase fire...
Prof Eliot Jacobson published this graphic a few days ago: We can be extremely thankful for this data we as it helps us with risk mitigation. Have you heard of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship? This is one of the most robust findings in atmospheric physics (you can read more about it here)...
Berkeley Earth have just released a powerful new tool called Synthesis by Berkeley Earth which they describe as a new city-level climate intelligence platform combining our high-resolution observational record with forward-looking warming projections for more than 8,000 locations worldwide...
With the release of the May 2026 ERA5 data James Hansen et al are once again proven right. Here was what they said in March of 2024: We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in...
The last few weeks have revealed that Knysna water security is multifaceted! Obviously it is about having enough rainfall, but another real challenge became visible which is can the town reliably capture, move, store and distribute water during increasingly unstable conditions. Understanding this...
The latest infrastructure updates from Knysna Municipality and the Western Cape Government are important, particularly for the water system. Pump station refurbishments, groundwater rehabilitation, improved transfer infrastructure and efforts to reduce losses through metering should all help the...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 The chart above is a clear snapshot of where things stand. Under current policies, the chance of keeping warming below 2°C is very low. Even if countries follow through on existing commitments, the probability only improves to somewhere between about a quarter and a...