Diaz Beach in context
As we continue to heat, physical environments are becoming unstable globally. We see this manifest in extreme heatwaves, extreme wildfire events and more powerful storms. In the Garden Route District Climate Change Adaptation Strategy report one of the findings was that at higher global...
We will keep monitoring the Knysna River
Today the Knysna Municipality unveiled the Vodacom powered Digital Water Tower Dashboard which gives greater visibility into water demand, system inputs and losses. This is an important step in helping us understand how efficiently the municipality's water system is working. However, the dashboard...
SAWS are you ok?
The South African Weather Service posted this update on their Facebook page: Although there is nothing inherently wrong with humour in weather communication, given the magnitude of risk that is associated with this event, the use of laugh emojis is particularly jarring. In the EU so far this...
Soil moisture
As the very powerful El Niño continues to develop we need to pay attention to as many signals as possible to enable us to determine early what impacts could be experienced in the Garden Route. The latest ECMWF soil-moisture forecast, valid up to 31 August, suggests that parts of the Western Cape...
Climate Intelligence Brief | August 2026
Reading time: 5 minutes The Headline Confidence has increased that the global climate system is moving into an exceptionally strong El Niño event, with multiple independent forecasting centers now converging on a similar outlook. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole has moved decisively...
Climate Intelligence Brief | July 2026
Reading time: 5 minutes The Headline Confidence is increasing that the global climate system is aligning toward a significant El Niño event, with multiple independent forecasting centres now converging on a similar outlook. While uncertainty remains around the magnitude of regional impacts, the...
El Niño – what should we watch for?
We have now passed what is traditionally known as the "spring (northern hemisphere) predictability barrier" when it comes to ENSO predictions. The period between March and May carries considerable uncertainty but as we pass this period models become more reliable in their forecasts. This is why...
Are you fire ready?
With latest news landing that the current developing El Niño could be the most extreme on record, it is important to revisit fire safety plans. First the El Niño update: https://bsky.app/profile/zekehausfather.com/post/3mqjykq6sqe2m El Niño events, especially very strong ones do increase fire...
Data helps with risk mitigation
Prof Eliot Jacobson published this graphic a few days ago: We can be extremely thankful for this data we as it helps us with risk mitigation. Have you heard of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship? This is one of the most robust findings in atmospheric physics (you can read more about it here)...
When climate risk becomes an insurance risk on the Garden Route
The central message is straightforward: repeated extreme-weather losses are changing how insurers and reinsurers assess the Garden Route.
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