Prof Eliot Jacobson published this graphic a few days ago: We can be extremely thankful for this data we as it helps us with risk mitigation. Have you heard of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship? This is one of the most robust findings in atmospheric physics (you can read more about it here)...
Berkeley Earth have just released a powerful new tool called Synthesis by Berkeley Earth which they describe as a new city-level climate intelligence platform combining our high-resolution observational record with forward-looking warming projections for more than 8,000 locations worldwide...
With the release of the May 2026 ERA5 data James Hansen et al are once again proven right. Here was what they said in March of 2024: We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 The chart above is a clear snapshot of where things stand. Under current policies, the chance of keeping warming below 2°C is very low. Even if countries follow through on existing commitments, the probability only improves to somewhere between about a quarter and a...
Back in March of this year Jens Terhaar et al published this paper entitled Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected. In this paper they said the following: On the basis of the simulated record-shattering jumps, we conclude that it is likely that SSTs will...
The six major datasets have begun publishing their December data and as a result we can get confirmation of where 2024 ended. In the ERA5 dataset, December 2024 ended at +1.69ºC above the 1850-1900 December average.The 12-month running mean is now +1.60ºC making 2024 the first calendar year, in...
With the October 2024 data now available we are able to do this calculation: 🔥Decadal warming of 0.43°C?!🔥Comparing 17 months of the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 El Niño cycles:— Leon Simons (@leonsimons.bsky.social) 2024-11-02T20:50:21.681Z What does this mean? Lets do a quick calculation: 2025...
On May 16 James Hansen and his colleagues said the following: "Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina. "Present extreme planetary energy imbalance will limit La Nina-driven temperature...
Zeke Hausfather published this piece on Carbon Brief today entitled Analysis: What record global heat means for breaching the 1.5C warming limit Here is the analysis using the different datasets and methodologies to determine the answer to this question It would seem from the above that the...
When one of the top global experts on the the topic shares their views on what they are seeing in the data, then pay serious attention. Case in point Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC, Keynote by Prof. Stefan Rahmstrof You can also read his report here: Is the...