Update - 13 June
The world’s major forecasting centres are now largely in agreement that El Niño is underway and is likely to strengthen significantly during the second half of 2026.
NOAA has upgraded to an El Niño Advisory, while Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) states that El Niño conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific. Seasonal forecast systems from ECMWF, NOAA, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and other international centres continue to project a strong to very strong event by late 2026.
What is particularly noteworthy is the speed of development. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have risen rapidly during the past three months, while substantial subsurface heat remains across the equatorial Pacific. Atmospheric indicators are also increasingly reflecting a coupled El Niño pattern
Current multi-model guidance suggests the event could peak at levels comparable to some of the strongest El Niño episodes observed in recent decades, although considerable uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate intensity.
For Southern Africa, El Niño is historically associated with an increased risk of below-normal rainfall, particularly across the summer rainfall region. Impacts on the southern Cape and Garden Route are less straightforward because local rainfall is influenced by multiple drivers including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), frontal systems and regional ocean conditions.
There is increasing reason for attention.
The key message is that the debate has shifted. The question is no longer whether El Niño will develop, but rather how strong it will become and what impacts it may have during the 2026/27 season.
As always, early warnings are about monitoring emerging risks before they become obvious.
Update - 7 June
While the median peak forecast eased slightly to +3.0°C on the relative Niño index, the broader message remains unchanged: the majority of model guidance points toward an event comparable to, or potentially stronger than, the largest El Niños ever observed in the modern record.
The latest multi-model ENSO dashboard, which combines 643 ensemble members from 13 forecasting systems, continues to project a potentially historic El Niño event.
Importantly, this outlook is now being reinforced by observed ocean conditions rather than relying solely on long-range model projections.
What is of particular interest and concern is the unprecedented speed at which the Niño3.4 region is heating for this time of year.
The ocean is behaving in a way that is consistent with a rapidly intensifying El Niño and is increasingly tracking within the family of major El Niño events.
Preparation for the impacts from this event should not be taken lightly.
Update - 14 May
El Niño is now almost certain to arrive by July 2026, with a 96% chance it will persist through early 2027. The latest NOAA update (May 14) confirms that ocean and atmospheric conditions are rapidly aligning for a strong event, with subsurface heat, wind shifts, and sea surface temperatures all trending toward El Niño. While the exact strength remains uncertain, the risk of drier conditions, water shortages, and elevated fire danger for Southern Africa is now high. Now is the time to prepare.
What has changed since April 2026
El Niño Onset:
82% chance of El Niño emerging in May–July 2026 (up from 61% in April).
96% chance it will continue through December 2026–February 2027 (near-certainty for persistence).
Current SSTs:
Niño-4: +0.5°C
Niño-3.4: +0.4°C (rising steadily)
Niño-1+2: +1.0°C (warming fastest in the eastern Pacific).
Subsurface "Fuel":
Equatorial subsurface temperatures (0–300m depth) have increased for the 6th consecutive month, with widespread warm anomalies across the Pacific.
This confirms the warm water needed to sustain El Niño is in place.
Atmospheric Coupling:
Westerly wind anomalies are now observed over the western and central Pacific, a critical sign that the atmosphere is reinforcing ocean warming.
Convection patterns (rainfall and cloud cover) are shifting in ways consistent with El Niño development.
What this means for South Africa
| Risk | Likelihood | Timing | Action Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below-normal rainfall | Very High | Oct 2026–Mar 2027 | Conserve water now; plan for shortages. |
| Water shortages | Highly Probable | Late 2026–Early 2027 | Fix leaks, reduce usage, install rainwater harvesting. |
| Higher fire risk | Very High | Late 2026 | Clear firebreaks, monitor fuel loads. |
| Uneven rainfall | Very High | Throughout 2026 | Prepare for dry spells between storms. |
Remember: The 2015/16 El Niño (RONI +2.4°C) contributed to Cape Town’s "Day Zero" and the Knysna fires. 2026 is on track to be at least as impactful.
What you can do now
For Households & Communities:
Water:
Fix leaks and reduce water use immediately don’t wait for restrictions.
Install rainwater harvesting systems if possible.
Monitor local water supply updates and follow conservation guidelines.Fire Safety:
Clear dry brush and vegetation near homes, farms, and infrastructure.
Check local fire alerts and have an evacuation plan ready.
Avoid open flames in dry, windy conditions.
Farming & Garden:
Prioritize drought-resistant crops or reduce water-intensive planting.
Mulch soil to retain moisture and water deeply but less frequently.
For Municipalities & Businesses
Stress-test water supply systems, assume below-average rainfall for the next 12 months.
Communicate early with residents about conservation measures and restrictions.
Plan for uneven rainfall (e.g., short heavy downpours followed by long dry spells).
What’s Next?
June 11, 2026: NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. We’ll know if:
Niño-3.4 reaches +1.0°C (official El Niño declaration).
Atmospheric coupling strengthens (westerly winds persist).July–August 2026:
July–August 2026:
If Niño-3.4 hits +1.5°C, we’ll be in a strong El Niño.
If it reaches +2.0°C, it’s a very strong event (like 2015–16).
Follow updates: Bookmark NOAA’s ENSO page or this blog for the latest.
Update - 11 May
El Niño is now almost certain to be very strong by late 2026. The latest multi-model forecast (May 2026) shows a >80% chance of Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.0°C or higher—the threshold for a very strong El Niño—by October–December 2026. This is a sharp increase from earlier forecasts and matches the conditions seen in 2015–16, which contributed to Cape Town’s "Day Zero" and the Knysna fires.
The May 2026 multi-model update is a major shift in the forecast. It removes much of the uncertainty from April and confirms that 2026 is on track for a very strong El Niño. For Southern Africa, this means:
- Higher confidence in drier conditions later in 2026.
- Greater urgency to prepare for water shortages and fire risks.
- A need to communicate this clearly to communities, farmers, and municipalities.
Update - 24 April
Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern North Pacific are now running well above the historical range for this time of year as can be seen above. The latest data shows a sharp rise through April, with values sitting near the upper end of anything observed since 1979.
This matters because warming in this region is not isolated. New research (Extreme spring Pacific annular warming elevates the 2026/27 El
Niño) shows it can help reinforce the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that drive El Niño development. At the same time, subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific has strengthened and is spreading eastward, a pattern already highlighted in recent ENSO updates.
Earlier today the World Meteorological Organization also noted that the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2026 is increasing.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”—Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
Taken together, these signals point to a system that is shifting earlier and more decisively than usual as highlighted in the IRI forecast of April 20:
Warmer waters now dominate much of the subsurface, and their eastward expansion has pushed the Niño 1+2 index up to +1.8 °C (week centered on 15 April 2026), with Niño 3 at +0.6 °C and Niño 4 at +0.9 °C. Together, these signals point to rapidly evolving ENSO conditions favoring a swift onset of El Niño.
It does not guarantee the final strength of the event, but it does increase confidence that El Niño conditions are likely to establish in the coming months.
For the Garden Route and much of southern Africa, El Niño is typically associated with a higher risk of below-normal rainfall later in the year. After a dry 2025, that raises the possibility of multi-season pressure on water resources.
See what steps can be taken now in preparation for this event.
There are early signs that an El Niño event is developing in the Pacific. Several major forecast models are now pointing in the same direction as pointed out by Zeke Hausfather:
Ocean temperatures (0-300m) have warmed quickly over the past few months.
Winds over the equator are also beginning to shift in a way that supports further warming.
Important to note that at this stage (ie early April) this is still an early signal rather than a firm forecast.
For the Garden Route, El Niño does not translate into a definite clear outcome. The local climate sits in a transition zone, and rainfall patterns are naturally variable from year to year. In the past, similar setups have been linked to seasons where rainfall becomes less consistent, with longer dry spells between rain events.
This kind of variability can be more challenging than a clearl wet or dry season. It affects water planning, vegetation growth, and fire risk, especially later in the year and into 2027.
Forecast confidence is still limited in April as mentioned. The next one to two months will be important, as the global signal usually becomes clearer as we head into winter. What we can say now is that the background conditions are shifting in a way that makes a strong El Niño later in the year more likely.
The last strong El Niño was the 2015/16 event where the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) peaked at +2.4ºC
You will recall that the impacts of this event translated into Cape Town's Day Zero event and the Knysna fire disaster.
At this early phase of the developing El Niño, it would be a good time to take some stock:
Water
- Fix leaks, reduce baseline demand
- Encourage early conservation rather than reactive restrictions
Land & Vegetation
- Clear fire-prone areas near infrastructure
- Monitor fuel loads if winter rainfall underperforms
Municipal / systems
- Stress-test water supply assumptions
- Plan for uneven rainfall rather than seasonal averages
Households
- Treat this like a slow-onset risk, not a sudden event
More clarity will come soon. For now, this is an early indication that the system is changing and given the strength forecasts it is something worth paying attention to.
You can follow the El Niño development here.