We must get ready to live in +1.5°C world. (The current long-term warming estimate is 1.3°C)
“Analysis of over 1,200 climate scenarios was carried out by the Potsdam Institute to assess the feasibility of scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, allowing for some overshoot”
“The research found that low or no overshoot scenarios typically relied on assumptions unsupported by current data, such as the ability to draw down over “7 billion tons [CO2] per year from the atmosphere by 2050”, compared with a current global capacity of 43 million tons per year .”
“The stark conclusion from this work is that a high overshoot scenario is more likely than a low overshoot scenario, at this point in time. If the underpinning assumptions for high overshoot scenarios are required to be ‘reasonable’, then only six of the original family of over 1,200 scenarios provide a credible pathway to limiting global warming to 1.5°C.”
What will your part of the world look like at 1.5°C of warming?