PETER DU TOIT

Musings from the Southern Tip of Africa

Hansen et al

May 17, 2024 | Climate Crisis, Science

Here are the major predictions James Hansen and colleagues made regarding 2023 and now in 2024 and the status of each of these to date.

  • September 2022: “The 2023 temperatures should be higher than in 2022, rivalling the warmest years.”
    Status Confirmed: 2023 was the warmest year on record.
  • August 2023: "The large imbalance suggests that each month for the rest of the year may be a new record for that month."
    Status Confirmed: Each month since June 2023 has been the warmest on record for the respective month of the year. 
  • December 2023: “Our Pipeline projection of peak warming 1.6-1.7°C in mid-2024 is based on the observed doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance.”
    Status Confirmed: 1.68ºC 12-month running mean reached in April 2024 in the Berkeley Earth dataset and 1.61ºC in the ERA5 dataset
  • March 2024: "We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in than going out – it will be clear that for all practical purposes the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached in the mid-2020s.
    Staus Pending

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