Here are the major predictions James Hansen and colleagues made regarding 2023 and now in 2024 and the status of each of these to date.
- September 2022: “The 2023 temperatures should be higher than in 2022, rivalling the warmest years.”
Status Confirmed: 2023 was the warmest year on record. - August 2023: "The large imbalance suggests that each month for the rest of the year may be a new record for that month."
Status Confirmed: Each month since June 2023 has been the warmest on record for the respective month of the year. - December 2023: “Our Pipeline projection of peak warming 1.6-1.7°C in mid-2024 is based on the observed doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance.”
Status Confirmed: 1.68ºC 12-month running mean reached in April 2024 in the Berkeley Earth dataset and 1.61ºC in the ERA5 dataset - March 2024: "We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in than going out – it will be clear that for all practical purposes the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached in the mid-2020s.
Staus Pending