We know that we will cross +1.5°C of heating permanently in the next 6-9 years (In December of 2023 using the long-term average we had already warmed by +1.26°C)

Using the available climate models we can project what we can expect when we reach this threshold in South Africa

As you can see the western half of South Africa is projected to have between 31 and 180 days above 32°C once we reach the +1.5°C threshold.

These parts of South Africa has already experienced these temperatures for a number of days during 2023 and 2024.

Humans tend to live in what is know as the “human climate niche” which is areas where the mean annual temperature (MAT) ranges between 13°C and 27°C

However as we continue to heat, millions more people will be exposed to unprecedented heat, that is MAT of ≥29°C

From studies we know what the impacts are of these high temperatures:

“Increased mortality, decreased productivity, decreased cognitive performance, impaired learning, adverse pregnancy outcomes, decreased crop yields, increased conflict, hate speech, migration and infectious diseases.”

This is what parts of South Africa will experience as we approach the +1.5°C threshold.

We already see glimpses of this now.