With the release of the May 2026 ERA5 data James Hansen et al are once again proven right.

Here was what they said in March of 2024:

We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in than going out – it will be clear that for all practical purposes the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached in the mid-2020s.

Here is the data showing the two peaks.

Doing the maths

1.64 + 1.42 = 3.06

3.06/2 = 1.53ºC

Then in February of this year Hanse et al made this statement:

We projected a minimum of 1.4°C to be achieved by the second quarter of 2026. A minimum about 1.4°C will be strong support of global temperature acceleration, as such La Nina minimum is higher than any El Nino maximum in the prior decade, which included a “Super El Nino.”

What this tells us of course is that everything is coming at us faster than we thought.

If the average is 1.53ºC and we are currently warming at 0.48ºC per decade then we can expect to reach 2ºC of hearing in the next 10 years ie around 2036.

As things stand at the moment we are completely unprepared for a world at this level of heating.

The adaptation conversation is becoming more and more urgent with each passing month.