The municipality’s recent communication on Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is welcome. NRW is often misunderstood. It includes:

• Unbilled authorised use (such as firefighting or communal taps)
• Metering inaccuracies
• Illegal connections
• And real physical losses (bursts and leaks)

Reducing NRW is essential. No water system can remain sustainable if large volumes of treated water do not generate revenue or reach intended users.

But we need to be clear about something important: NRW reform does not remove Knysna’s structural water risk.

The risk is hydrological, not just operational

Recent system data shows:

• Town consumption averaging roughly 9–12 ML/day
• Akkerkloof storage is just above 30%
• Augmentation capacity is still limited
• River levels are highly sensitive to rainfall variability

Even if NRW were reduced significantly, the system would still depend on:

• River abstraction
• Rainfall timing
• Storage buffers

Those are hydrological constraints. They do not disappear when billing improves or meters are replaced.

The critical distinction

Of course NRW reduction strengthens long-term system efficiency and resilience.

But short-term system survival depends on:

• River flow remaining above abstraction thresholds
• Akkerkloof storage not being drawn down too quickly
• Consumption remaining within safe limits

If rainfall remains below normal and river abstraction becomes difficult, storage is still the fallback and storage margins remain thin (just above 30% as mentioned.)

That is the structural exposure.

Time scales matter

Leak detection, pressure management and infrastructure upgrades are all very necessary, especially in Knysna. But they take months to years to materially reduce physical losses. Rainfall variability on the other hand is felt within days to weeks.

Those two timelines are not interchangeable. While NRW fixes improve resilience over time, it does not insulate the town from near-term water stress.

Why all this is important to understand

There is no contradiction in throwing our weight behind NRW reduction AND acknowledging that the system remains fragile.

While progress happens on the NRW front, the water security risk can still remain elevated. Both these statements can be true at the same time!

The inescapable fact is this. Knysna’s water security currently rests on four interdependent pillars:

1. River flow
2. Storage levels
3. Augmentation capacity (ie boreholes, springs etc.)
4. System efficiency (eg. NRW, consumption)

Weakness in any one pillar increases pressure on the others and improving one does not automatically stabilise the system.

The structural reality

The broader climate context matters - a lot! Rainfall inconstancy is increasing, dry spells are getting longer and river recharge events are becoming less predictable.

In this context:

• High NRW amplifies stress.
• Limited storage amplifies stress.
• River dependence amplifies stress.

Efficiency reform is 100% necessary but dependence on raw water remains the core vulnerability the town must face head on.

Understanding that distinction allows the community to support the work that must be done around NRW, while at the same time remaining realistic about risk.

This may sound pessimistic, but it is important structural literacy!