PETER DU TOIT

Musings from the Southern Tip of Africa

Preparing for the near-term future

May 4, 2024 | Adaptation, Climate Crisis, Science

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway that we seem to be on is SSP2-4.5

IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers

What does this mean?

Near-term (ie in the next 16 years) temperatures will reach between "1.2° to 1.8°C" permanently. (IPCC, very likely)

In 2024, we are already at a permanent 1.3°C and 1.5°C is imminent (projected 2030-2033)

2ºC is almost certain.

We need to figure out rather quickly what the world will look like at this threshold and prepare as best we can.

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