Now that the first quarter of 2024 is behind us projections can be made regarding global emissions, in this case fossil fuel CO2.

Projected total emissions growth: +0.5%

Since fossil fuel CO2 makes up the bulk of GHG emissions and if this projection holds (very likely) then we are completely and utterly off track of where we should be in 2024.

Reminder (as per the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023):

The lack of stringent emission reductions means that the required emission cuts from now to 2030 have increased significantly. To reach emission levels consistent with a below 2°C pathway in 2030, the cuts required per year are now 5.3 per cent from 2024, reaching 8.7 per cent per year on average for the 1.5°C pathway. To compare, the fall in total global GHG emissions from 2019 to 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 4.7 per cent.

We have definitely missed the 1.5ºC pathway target and are now firmly on track to miss the 2ºC pathway too.

Best we prepare for a world at these temperature thresholds.