There is a delay in the arrival of the cooler La Niña phase. Scientists are not sure about the reason for the delay but, regardless of the reason, it is now projected to be a short lived event. As a result we can expect the following as per the New Scientist piece linked above:
But as a weak event, it won’t cool global average temperatures as much as a strong and long-lasting one. “We have seen the global average temperature come down, but it’s still very elevated,” says Becker. “We probably won’t see as much of a decrease.”
Since the end of the El Niño in May global temperatures have remained elevated resulting in estimates that 2024 will become the first calendar year where global temperatures exceed 1.5°C
If the above transpires (very likely) it would mean that the WMO’s projection that at least one year of the next five years (2024-2028) would be above 1.5°C, would have been realised.
Looking at the ENSO predictions, there is a signal of the Nino3.4 region heating up again in 2025 as can be seen here:
This will mean that global temperatures will remain elevated in 2025 making it also very likely to end above 1.5°C. If an El Niño should develop in 2025, it will mean that 2026 will also be hot. The second year of an El Niño is always warmer. This will mean that 2026 also stands a very good chance of exceeding 1.5°C, making it the third year of exceedance, which brings us to this comment from the WMO:
There is a 47% likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial era, says the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update – up from 32% from last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
This would mean that for all practical purposes we have breeched the 1.5°C threshold. As a result of this we must begin an urgent conversation as to what the implications of this are.
Here is an example, Rupert Read in a keynote in Portugal three weeks ago: