Publication
George Herald
Published 20 May 2026
The George Herald featured an interview with Peter du Toit exploring the science behind recent extreme weather events and the factors contributing to their increasing frequency and intensity.
The article explained that no single weather event can be attributed solely to climate change. Instead, extreme weather is typically the result of multiple interacting influences, including natural climate variability, large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns, and the long-term warming of the Earth’s climate caused by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Understanding how these factors work together provides a more complete picture of why certain events become more likely or more severe.
A key focus was the role of Earth’s energy imbalance, driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which continues to warm the atmosphere, oceans and land surface. This additional energy increases the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, intensifies the hydrological cycle and creates conditions that can contribute to heavier rainfall, more intense flooding, prolonged heatwaves, drought and elevated wildfire risk. The presentation also explored how natural climate patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña, can either amplify or moderate these background warming trends depending on the region and time of year.
Using recent examples from South Africa and around the world, the discussion highlighted how advances in climate science now allow researchers to assess the influence of climate change on many extreme weather events through attribution studies. While these studies do not claim that climate change “caused” an individual event, they can determine whether human-induced warming made an event more likely or more intense.
The interview concluded by emphasising the importance of distinguishing between weather and climate while recognising that long-term climate change is altering the environment in which weather systems develop. Improving public understanding of these processes is essential for strengthening disaster preparedness, supporting climate adaptation and enabling informed decision-making in communities increasingly exposed to weather-related risks.
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