PETER DU TOIT

Musings from the Southern Tip of Africa

We can’t avoid the 1.5°C reality anymore

Apr 10, 2024 | Adaptation, Climate Crisis, Impacts, Instruments, Science

Mainstream climate scientists are finally joining what was considered a fringe group not so long ago and admitting that we have lost the ability to keep warming below 1.5°C

The rapidly shrinking carbon budget

As mentioned before on this blog we must now prepare to live in a 1.5°C world.

There has been an enormous amount of research on what this temperature threshold means for the world and in the weeks ahead I will share this with you.

Preparation (Adaptation) is crucial.

It is good to remember that the latest research as per the IPCC reporting is that we are moving into a high risk scenario as temperatures breach the 1.5°C threshold.

IPCC AR6 Synthesis Reports

There are 5 major tipping points that are reached at this threshold

Climate Tipping Points — Insights for Effective Policy Action

You will notice for example that one of these is the loss of low-latitude coral reefs. This happens primarily because of extremely high sea temperatures. The Great Barrier Reef has just experienced a severe event. Here is Prof Terry Hughes on this just this morning.

Take a look at the current sky high sea surface temperatures - we are literally in uncharted territory:

Copernicus Climate Pulse

And these extremely high SST’s have a profound impact on weather systems globally. Here is Dr Sam Burgess, Deputy Director Copernicus Change Service, ECMWF on these impacts

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