Here are the major predictions James Hansen and colleagues made regarding 2023 and now in 2024 and the status of each of these to date. September 2022: “The 2023 temperatures should be higher than in 2022, rivalling the warmest years.” Status Confirmed: 2023 was the warmest year on record. August...
With half the month of data in, its very likely (>95% chance) that May 2024 will be the warmest May on record, extending the streak of record breaking months to 12 in a row: [image or embed] — Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath.bsky.social) May 15, 2024 at 20:32 Reminder from January 12, 2024 by...
The Climate Change Services team have just published the ERA5 April analysis. High level: The team that manages the ERA5 climate dataset have just released their April analysis. High level: April was the hottest April in recorded history at +1.58°C above the 1850-1900 average The 12-month running...
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway that we seem to be on is SSP2-4.5 IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers What does this mean? Near-term (ie in the next 16 years) temperatures will reach between "1.2° to 1.8°C" permanently. (IPCC, very likely) In 2024, we are already at a permanent 1.3°C and 1.5°C...
Mainstream climate scientists are finally joining what was considered a fringe group not so long ago and admitting that we have lost the ability to keep warming below 1.5°C The rapidly shrinking carbon budget As mentioned before on this blog we must now prepare to live in a 1.5°C world. There has...
The atmosphere, which sustains life on earth, doesn't care about: The economy Political parties Where anyone lives, or How much money they have It only cares about one thing: How to stabilise itself after billions of tons of GHG's have been poured into it. It only cares about this. The faster we...
We must get ready to live in +1.5°C world. (The current long-term warming estimate is 1.3°C) “Analysis of over 1,200 climate scenarios was carried out by the Potsdam Institute to assess the feasibility of scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, allowing for some overshoot” “The...
In March of 2022 Luke Kemp et al published this paper entitled Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios and in it they explored catastrophic risks associated with the evolving climate crisis. They received some criticism that this was being alarmist. Far from it though as...
Save this image on your phone. Emissions Gap Report 2023 The first 2 months of 2024 are gone. If we don't achieve the 2024 target in the next 10 months then the 2025 targets get steeper still. Look around you? Do you see any attempt to reproduce covid-like emission reductions? Or is it pretty much...
This is obviously an important question to answer as it determines the speed at which we need to adapt to a world permanently at 1.5°C of heating. This month the ECMWF updated their projection to September 2023: However, in November of 2023, Lamboll et al published this paper entitled Assessing...